2025 · PS: Political Science and Politics
Uncommitted: The Limitations of Election Forecasting on Minorities and the Case of American Muslim Voters
Why did election forecasters miss the "uncommitted" movement? This article shows how models that ignore minority voters — like the American Muslim communities that outnumber victory margins in swing states — can blindside forecasts of American elections.
Drawing on the case of American Muslim voter engagement in the 2024 election season, this article argues that election-forecasting models—particularly state-based models—should integrate minority populations into their analysis as crucial variables. This is of particular significance in swing states. By including minority-voter engagement and related variables relevant to them such as pressing policy concerns (e.g., anti-war sentiment and racial attitudes), forecasters can better understand and predict electoral outcomes and address the gaps identified in traditional forecasting approaches. The recommendations presented in this article help election forecasters prepare for unexpected changes, such as the American Muslim shift of support away from President Biden in the 2024 primary election season.